(2008) R Sharma, O P Sha - Shipping Demand Forecasting for the Development of an Integrated Container Shipping Model for Indian Ports

R Sharma, O P Sha, Shipping Demand Forecasting for the Development of an Integrated Container Shipping Model for Indian Ports, IE(I) Journal – MR Vol 88, January 2008

Shipping Demand Forecasting for the Development of an Integrated Container Shipping Model for Indian Ports
R Sharma, O P Sha [Department of Ocean Engineering and Naval Architecture, Indian Institute of Technology, , Kharagpur]

This paper was received on August 03, 2007. Written discussion on the paper will be entertained till March 31, 2008.

ABSTRACT
India is a maritime country, and in its overall economic development, shipping is a crucial activity. In recent times containerization of cargo has increased, and now in an integrated and globalized world sea transportable goods in our country are required to be transported in containers. In this paper, a demand forecasting model is presented in the overall context for the development of an integrated container shipping model for Indian ports. The present paper discusses a demand forecasting model in which a combined methodology based on neural networks, fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms is used to predict an important parameter from shipping at some future point of time. Finally, a case study that is motivated by real world applications and data is presented to validate the forecasting model.

KEYWORDS
emand forecasting; Fuzzy logic driven decision modeller; Genetic algorithm driven fuzzy modeller design; Neural network modelling; Probabilistic modelling

Source :The Institution of Engineers (India)

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